Thursday, September 4, 2008

Round 277

Date Released: September 4th, 2008.
Date Rewarded: September 11th, 2008.

What percentage of users answering this question will get it correct?

Please round to the nearest whole number. Please do not include any characters in your answer other than numbers. This includes spaces, punctuation, or percentage signs. If there is no correct answer, we'll pick whatever answer comes closest to being correct.


Prize


Pink Lenny Painting

Click to show/hide solution

It is a guessing game. The following is the solution from TNT.

19,948 users entered this week's Lenny Conundrum. Here were the top ten answers, with the rounded percentage of users answering each one:
  1. "100" (1370 guesses, 6.9% of total entries)
  2. "1" (1141 guesses, 5.7% of total entries)
  3. "3" (821 guesses, 4.1% of total entries)
  4. "0" (766 guesses, 3.8% of total entries)
  5. "2" (668 guesses, 3.4% of total entries)
  6. "50" (654 guesses, 3.3% of total entries)
  7. "5" (571 guesses, 2.8% of total entries)
  8. "10" (525 guesses, 2.6% of total entries)
  9. "4" (460 guesses, 2.3% of total entries)
  10. "100%" (366 guesses, 1.8% of total entries, but DISQUALIFIED since the question stated to omit percentage signs)

All other guesses came in at under 2%, and since 0, 1, and 2 are already accounted for in the top ten, it's just a matter of which one comes closest. From above, you can see that "3" came closest to its corresponding percentage, so 3 was the correct answer. Wouldn't be interesting to see how people would answer this question already knowing how people answered it before?

Results: 821 people guessed the correct answer earning themselves 2437 NP each.

34 comments:

a said...

Is that it?!?

Rampageric77 said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Rodrunner said...

i agree that the probability of getting it right is in between 1-100 percent. actually picking one from 1-100 is a 1% chance.

lets say your guess is y and say the correct answer will be x. compare y to x.

if y=x ; is a 1% chance
if y=x+1; is a 1% chance
if y=x-1; is a 1% chance

x+1 and x-1 are the possibilities that you might get the number closest to the exact number.

but what is asked is the % of the users answering it will get it right.

Dylan said...

Now, this does not have much thought to it, but at the same time, the answer could be anything. Let's say 40 people try to solve the riddle. Most of them say 20%, and a few say 50%, the last one puts 10%. Who wins? Well it's a brain-teaser, figure it out yourself!

SONJA ! said...

I guess that it should be 1%...

Jennifer said...

What percentage of users answering this question will get it correct?

if more than 1% of people guessing put down 1% for an answer than it wont be right. for 2% to be right, 2% of people guessing have to guess 2%.

they wont even have the answer till everyone guesses and they find a median. its impossible for them to have an answer. the answer depends on all of our guesses together.

Jennifer said...

if the percent of people guessing a number (x) is the same as the number guessed (x) then that will be the answer.
1% of people can guess 1%; 2% of people can guess 2% and so on. 10% of people can guess 10% for it to be right.

the answer isn't chosen until after the guesses are all tallied up. they'll see how many people guess which numbers 0-100%. when they find the median, then that will be the right number.

so what number group do you want to guess with?

Jennifer said...

5141 people guessed right last time out of x people guessing.

we don't know how many people are playing LC. who is guessing what number percent, we don't know the data on this. its a trick almost. like a catch 22.

what to do we do? 0%, 1%, 2%, 3%, 4%, 5%, 10%

frank said...

my thoughts on it are that 0 percent of people answering the question will get it right.

I think this because in order for one to guess the "correct" answer... the answer would have to be pre-determined. And if the answer was pre-determined it would then lose its accuracy because it would have been known the entire time instead of actually basing it on the answers at the end.

Sorry if this makes no sense to anyone else how I wrote it... It works for me.

Steph Chung said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Bunella said...

if everyone says 100 then everyone will be right.

theCrew said...

lol but not everyone would say 100. i put 3. basically its just a guess question. just choose a number and if youre lucky youll be right

Deuce Loosely said...

To clarify what bunella says, since there are no specifics given in the question and no discernible tricks hidden in the wording, everyone who answers will be correct. All everyone has to do is leave out the % and the answer should be 100. That number may be lowered by people TNT is counting on overthinking the question or not reading instructions and including the % anyway. Given those two variables, I'd say the answer would be somewhere in the 90s. Again, however, if everyone guesses 100 we'll all be right.

Dylan said...

First of all, the % of this is not anywhere close to 100, considering how thousands of people we don't know have already guessed low, and before you guys guess wrong, I want to warn you, guess low.

Marcella said...

FYI...if everyone guesses low and they all have the same answer, then a HIGH percentage of people would have that answer. So if most people guess 3%...then 3% will not be the answer. And I do have a feeling many people will guess low, thinking "Wow, this is hard, a lot of people aren't going to get it" lol

Let me see if I can explain this...the answer will be if the EXACT percentage of people guessed the SAME answer as that EXACT percentage. So...assuming most people won't guess 100, or any of the high numbers...we can rule those out. Since the low guessers would cancel themselves out...we can rule those out.

Without actually doing any calculations (and I'm sure you can, it's all statistics), my guess is that it will be somewhere below 50 (more like below 30), but above 10 (or possibly a little below, but I dount it). That's my logic. Any mathemeticians out there can try it and let me know what they come up with!

Marcella said...

Ok ignore the last paragraph of my last post.

Assuming the numbers are distributed normally (equal people guess every number), 1% will be correct. We can pretty much assume that won't happen. I do still think that the majority of the guesses will be below 50%. However, if most of the numbers are distributed evenly across the lower 50%, it would still be a low number (less than 2%...which would round to 2). I now feel like the range will be somewhere between 3 and 8%, excluding 5%, simply because many people would probably guess 5%, ruling it out. It may also be something like 10% or 15% because many people would probably guess those as well, and that may be the percentage of guessers who guess it (if that made sense, lol).

Anyway...my conclusion is that the answer will be 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 10, or 15. I myself will probably go with 3 or 4. Possibly even 2, now that I think about it.

Anyway...Anyone who understood that (I know I kind of rambled), please let me know what you think!

Marcella said...

One last question:

What would happen if 3% of the people guess 3% and 10% guess 10%? Who would win? They can't award both answers because then they would be wrong. They may have created a catch-22 themselves lol.

Jennifer said...

i cant wait to see what tnt puts as the answer next week. this should be interesting.

koala123 said...

Well if all the people on this website put down 3% then it might not be 3%!

Dylan said...

Marcella, you're right, I never thought about it that way. that's why people should think again, although the answer could be below 20, it could also be more than 20. It's just one of those questions.

theCrew said...

you see, there's no definate answer, if many people put 20% and few put 50% then the few would be correct however, the few would make up a small percentage making the many correct and it keeps going round, its a paradox error.

Ashley said...

If everyone was smart enough to figure out the question, then it would be 100 percent, because we choose the answer. If we all choose 100. (Which would happen if everyone thought it through, then we would be right. Otherwise there is no full proof way to answer the question, and know that you got it right.) If 3% choose 3 then every other number will have to have less than three percent voting for it. Of course if the majority of people choose one hundred, but on person doesn't. If they choose anything besides 1 then nobody wins. It is just luck. Either you are lucky or you aren't.

DarkAngel said...

i think the answer is o% like frank because if you guess 1% alot of people would think that so it would be like 20% of people getting it right or more but thenonly like 1% of people thought 20% would get it right so 1% would be the right answer and as i said sense alot of people thought 1% the answer is now back to like 20% so no one would get it right

DrStevo said...

So... what will be considered the RIGHT answer, how is it to be determined? If it is, as supposed, the percentage of answers that is exactly the same as the guess, then the correct answer would be 5, only if exactly 5% of the respondants guess 5. Given that,100% would be inconceivable, simply because it is inconcevable that 100% of the responses will be 100. 0% is also not possible because if even 1 person guesses 0, it is no longer correct. Similarly 1 would seem to be improbable simply because I would think greater than 1% would guess 1, basing their thought process on pure randomness. 2-15% seem to be the most likely choices for success because, in my opinion their will be some randomness and I wonder if their will be NO correct answer (one in which the number of guessers exactly equals the percentage guessed.)

Marcella said...

You know, the answer COULD be 0%...they round. So...if less than .5% guess 0, that could actually be the answer.

lol I'll be mad if they actually do that

Justine said...

i put 100 in the vain hopes that everyone would put 100 in the vain hope that EVERY neopian would do the same thing.

its obviously not going to be 100, but this is not a mathmatical question. its really pure guessing and luck.

it wont be 1 because that means that if 100 people guess, only 1 could guess 1.

if 100 people guess then only 3 can guess 3 and so on.

obviously much morethan 100 people guess so it does get more complex, but at this point its just who gets the right number of people to guess with them.

Justine said...

i actually agree with frank.

no one can get it right until EVERY answer is already submitted.

it has nothing to do with numbers really, just the fact that the answer isnt out there for people to get right therefore, no one can.

WwW said...

Um... howabout everyone who reads this, put 50....but if 100% of people put 50, does that meaan they got it right?

artemislenore said...

I put 3%

Jennifer said...

i guessed 3% also. 11:25am and the round is finally being judged... just waiting for the answer and new LC question to go up.

Rampageric77 said...

Dear Eric,

Congratulations! You have guessed correctly in the Lenny Conundrum game (round 277). You have won 2437 NP!

Because you were in the first 250 to guess correctly, you also have been awarded a Pink Lenny Painting, and receive a trophy and the Lenny Conundrum avatar!

Yours Sincerely,
The Neopets Team!

3% was the answer, the same as last time they asked the question in round 108.

Here is the explanation

http://www.neopets.com/games/conundrum_feature.phtml?round=108

Jennifer said...

19,948 users entered this week's Lenny Conundrum. Here were the top ten answers, with the rounded percentage of users answering each one:

1. "100" (1370 guesses, 6.9% of total entries)
2. "1" (1141 guesses, 5.7% of total entries)
3. "3" (821 guesses, 4.1% of total entries)
4. "0" (766 guesses, 3.8% of total entries)
5. "2" (668 guesses, 3.4% of total entries)
6. "50" (654 guesses, 3.3% of total entries)
7. "5" (571 guesses, 2.8% of total entries)
8. "10" (525 guesses, 2.6% of total entries)
9. "4" (960 guesses, 2.3% of total entries)
10. "100%" (766 guesses, 1.8% of total entries, but DISQUALIFIED since the question stated to omit percentage signs)

All other guesses came in at under 2%, and since 0, 1, and 2 are already accounted for in the top ten, it's just a matter of which one comes closest. From above, you can see that "3" came closest to its corresponding percentage, so 3 was the correct answer. Wouldn't be interesting to see how people would answer this question already knowing how people answered it before?

Jennifer said...

I'm guessing 3% again for the next round.

africanman132 said...

Congratulations! You have guessed correctly in the Lenny Conundrum game (round 277). You have won 2437 NP!

Because you were in the first 250 to guess correctly, you also have been awarded a Pink Lenny Painting, and receive a trophy and the Lenny Conundrum avatar!



Whoohoo, and on the least likely round too.